Where are we? And what happens next?
I would really like to not have to find a new home for this website. It has taken me long enough to learn how to use the Blogger system. I would rather not spend the time necessary learning a new system. So I would not want Google to view this post as a call to violence or incitement to any type of physical conflict whatsoever.
But politics is a type of conflict. In fact, perhaps the most noble and healthy type of conflict: The conflict of ideas. Well noble and healthy so long as that is where it stays. But when people start getting shot and killed, that is no longer the conflict of ideas.
So what is it?
Is it murder? Undoubtedly. Assassination? Surely. But I would say that it is also the ultimate form of censorship, right? It is difficult to have a conflict of ideas if one side has been silenced by death, and fear of death.
But is it war? And if it is war, when did it start? Here is another question: When does the conflict of ideas become the war of ideas? When when does the war of ideas become just war? Surely assassination is a signal.
We all know the Clausewitz quote: War is not an independent phenomenon, but the continuation of politics by different means.
Is that where we are today?
I think the answer largely depends on what happens next.
But surely we can extend Clausewitz: Assassination is the continuation of politics by different means. Although martyrdom is risky for the perpetrators.
I am reminded of another quote: Before you can have peace, you must first have victory. I am not sure where this came from, but I first heard it from Rush Limbaugh.
So can we have peace without more bloodshed? And if so, how?
I think it is possible, but it would necessitate the complete collapse of the ideas of one side or the other. Is that a realistic goal? Looking at all the current 80/20 issues, one might argue that we are there already.
Yet, as a nation, we remain pretty much 50/50 divided. 80/20 issues or not, half of us are still voting for people who support the twenty percent side of numerous policy issues.
So if it will take complete collapse, we are not there yet. And besides, there are still many 50-ish/50-ish issues to be dealt with. There are even some 20-60-20 issues, right?
Point is, outside of the academy and traditional media, I do not see a coming collapse of ideas. Now or in the foreseeable future. And each side's supporters are not going anywhere. We're all still here, and as we look around the world, really, there's no place to go.
So then the question becomes: Can we live indefinitely with the status quo? With the sharply divided culture? Today, it is really two countries in one. And it is not peaceful and it is not trusting; not anymore.
We are a society that has lost good will towards people we disagree with. We lost our good will and we lost our civil discourse. Sadly, I think that is an honest and fair way to describe it.
So here is the choice before us. An indefinite, non-peaceful, non-trusting status quo. Or war, and assuming victory by one side or the other, maybe followed by peace. As with our first civil war.
Two bad options to choose from. I suppose an optimist would argue that it is possible that the status quo will improve, and we might return to good will and civil discourse. But I just don't see it.
So where are we? And what happens next?